Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Published third quarter GDP economists expect growth of less than 7

Photo: network

On October 19, the National Bureau of statistics will release third-quarter GDP. At the moment of the economic slowdown, economists expected China's economy is not so optimistic.

Survey of 25 economists by Bloomberg News, analysts predict that Chinese economic 6.7% in real terms in the third quarter. China's official growth targets set for 2015 as "about 7%".

Bloomberg reported that the investigation expected to drop with a target value for the first quarter of 2009 to the Max, when China's economic growth fell to 6.2%, well below the 8% target for the year, but in 2008 the 4 trillion stimulus, 2009 economic growth is driving up to the year 9.2%.

Recently, a number of agencies also made a forecast of economic growth in the third quarter. ANZ's lowest forecast value, 6.4%; Netherlands International Group predicted in Asia 6.5%; UBS forecast for 6.6%. Morgan Stanley and France Societe Generale Bank's forecasts are more optimistic, as 6.9%.

Zhipeng Hu, China Economist at UBS wrote in the report, "We the next third-quarter GDP data is expected to show growth in real GDP per cent down to 6.6%, that of the continued downturn in the real estate market, industrial activity shrinking, weak trading volumes reduced significantly and exports weighed down. " Free trade zone in the Pudong new area over the

Statistics Bureau spokesman Sheng laiyun, end of September once publicly, of not less than 6.5% GDP growth will be regarded as approximately 7%.

Research Institute of Chinese Academy of social sciences, finance strategy released on September 28, the report said, total economic demand in China in the third quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by about 6.9%.

The report points out that major indicators of China's economy in the third quarter was no better: investment growth was still slow, steady consumption growth, exports currently there are signs of improvement, industrial growth rate slightly down, serious structural deflation.

In recent weeks, the Chinese Government introduced a series of steady growth measures, including ratification of additional infrastructure and cut mortgage down-payment requirements. Meanwhile, the Government is also committed to promoting structural adjustment measures, such as the reform of State-owned enterprises.

Held on September 28 "NAES quarterly analysis of the macroeconomic situation (2015 3)", said Gao Peiyong, Research Institute of Chinese Academy of social sciences, Member, financial strategy Dean, the current Chinese economic overcapacity, bubbles, de-leveraging is still unfinished, four-quarter domestic and international economic situation is more severe, the domestic economy has "inertial decline" of risk.

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