When the pressure and power dynamic balance over a period of time is relatively stable, it should be said the economic bottom. Surging materials
7% China's economic growth in the first half, growth further down on last year. Has experienced rapid growth in previous years, China's economy has been in a slow downward trend in recent years. China's economy will be able to find out the bottom? There will be "Cliff" down? People will always have these questions concern the Chinese economy.
Growth shift in accordance with law
Long term is already in "flat", maintaining high growth is the goal and ideal State
10%, 9%, and the 7% ... ... The last five or six years, China's economy continued to drop. At present, this channel is already approaching or at the bottom? Economic growth in the future will show what kind of status?
"Any economy develops to a certain level will shift in economic growth, this is the universal law of economic development all over the world. In the new normal, need to shift China's economy. But the concern is, this two-year downward rate has slowed significantly. "The National Bureau of statistics said Pan Jiancheng, Deputy Director of China economic situation monitoring center, from 2012 to now runs China's economic growth fluctuations remain within the tight range of 7%-8%, which is its own quarterly GDP growth never happened on record. Slowed in the downturn, but be very gentle, can also be said that in the long run are already in a "flat".
Pan Jiancheng says, "now, is unlikely to economic growth this year is lower than 6.9%, above 7.1% is also unlikely, realization of 7% per cent growth target for the year is unlikely".
Then the end of the slowdown in China's economic situation is it possible and form a solid base at around 7%? "According to the shifting trends, this ' flat ' can be a slight downward tilt of the ' l '-shape flat bottom. "Said Pan Jiancheng.
National development and Executive Dean of the Institute of strategic studies, Renmin University Liu yuanchun said: "from 2007, the trend of economic growth as an asymmetrical 'W',2008, 2009 is the first bottom, bottom of the second after the transition may be required, when implementing a new comprehensive power, stock sector at the end of the integration will start to take on a new round of rapid growth in embryonic form. "
How to determine whether the economy bottom formed? Pan Jiancheng proposed analysis method of dynamic balance: "China's economy is under pressure and the dynamic interaction of two forces the dynamic development of both this, but not long, is constantly changing. When the pressure and power dynamic balance over a period of time is relatively stable, it should be said the economic bottom. " Anti corruption storm straight to the SFC inner
Wang yiming, Deputy Director of development research center of the State Council believe that slowing economy toward equilibrium must meet three conditions: seen from the demand side, the growth rate of investment to a "soft landing". From the supply side, excess capacity to be "cleared". From the perspective of growth and new power to lead. "At the moment, new growth points are emerging, but volumes are not large enough, the stars without the Moon, new impetus to growth was not sufficient to compensate for the weakening of the old power. After completing the alternate new and old power, the economic balance. "
Growth dip after the Chinese economy will be running, and speculation. The view was expressed that, China will be "v" shaped bottoming out, back to rapid development. In this regard, said Pan Jiancheng, the State implemented a series of macro-control policies, keep shifting rhythm of smooth, mild, it is not easy. No need to pursue rapid growth with economies shift to maintain high-speed growth is our goal, it is an ideal State.
Development not only on speed
Delta is in the process out of the bottom of the economic structure better, higher quality, more people get stronger is to highlight
Into the new normal economy, is in the old and new energy conversion stages, like a chrysalis into a butterfly, full of pain and hope. At this stage, to observe if you look only to the growth of China's economy, unavoidably biased.
"All along, we focused on economic growth at the bottom, while ignoring the economic bottom of the Delta. 6 years to economic increases are out of the bottom of the course, send out positive signals of the economic trend. "Said Pan Jiancheng, 7% China's economic growth in the first half of this year, this is the growth in size of $ 10 trillion economy, Delta is enormous. When the economy reaches a certain level, increase of economy should not be underestimated.
Economic growth presents "l" shaped smooth slowing at the same time, economic increase in our country has come out of a flat "u"-shaped rebound. It is estimated that in 2010, China's economic growth is 10.6%, by 2014 years price increase is more than 4.47 trillion yuan, 2015 assuming a 7% pace, constant price increases are more than 4.45 trillion yuan, a nearly 5-year high, almost corresponding to the 2010 10.6% growth increments.
Careful analysis of the 7% of China's economic growth in the first half of this year, we can in terms of overall growth of "plain", see the bright lights behind its people full of hope.
Economic structure better. Growth drivers are moving from traditional industries to service industries. Tertiary industry 8.4% in the first half, an increase of 0.4%; service share of GDP, increasing its share to 49.5%. Meanwhile, economic growth from investment and exports towards consumption of traditional pull. Contribution of consumption to economic growth in the first half reached 60%, an increase of 5.7%, the basic role of consumption-led growth further.
Economy of higher quality. Growth from high polluting and high energy-consuming industries, turned to high-tech and strategic emerging industries. The first half of the high-tech manufacturing industry value added grew by 10.5%, significantly faster than the overall level of industry. Industrial investment from high-tech manufacturing investment than 1.9% and less than industrial investment 4.8% investment in high energy-consuming industry.
Get a stronger sense of the people. Town to achieve the annual target of 72% new jobs in the first half of the year, large urban towns survey unemployment rate is around 5.1%, stable employment expansion. While national per capita disposable income grew faster than economic growth, the consumption capacity of residents, prices remain stable.
"While the economy slowed down, but the new growth comes to manifest, when the next round of the global business cycle downturn, China is likely to lead. "Liu yuanchun said.
"Evaluation of the economic development and the well-being of the people is the most important. As long as they can ensure relatively full employment, income growth and economy, improvement of ecological environment and economic growth a bit higher or lower are acceptable. "Pan Jiancheng suggest more rational and comprehensive view of economic development, with more comprehensive indicators to measure: from growth to an increase, from quantity to quality, from speed to efficiency, the shift from growth to development.
China's economy will not "hard landing"
Economy have the basis, conditions and have the power. If you slip out of a reasonable interval, with enough capacity to deal with
Recent data showed that China's economy is still facing some downward pressure. Many people worried: will the Chinese economy "Cliff" falling, "a hard landing"?
Pan Jiancheng that economic risks, there must be two combinations:
Combination of short and long term. "Economic development is a marathon, not a Sprint, short term economic indicators decline or fluctuation does not affect economic fundamentals and long-term trend, the so-called ' volatility potential is still good. "
Combining local and global. "Local, local industry greater volatility, in the country as a whole can be completely controlled. Never point to misjudgement of the situation throughout the country. "
"Efforts to prevent and resolve regional, systemic risk, China's economy will not ' Cliff ' decline. "Huang yiping, Vice President of national school of development at Peking University judge.
From fundamentals support see, China economic has huge of potential and inner power: new industrialization, and information, and town of, and agricultural modern process of advance; structural reform stream release of reform bonus; venture innovation inspired all people of infinite creativity; people life on public products, and public service huge of needs; "area way", and Beijing Jin JI collaborative development, and Yangtze River economic with three big strategy of led,, China economic future to good has based, and has conditions, and has power.
From the perspective of risk, in recent years, despite downside pressure, but the Central Bank has no extra money, the Government did not make a large strong stimulation, but mainly relies on reform to enhance the economic vitality, which stabilized the situation, also left a space for further regulation. "Once the economy shows a reasonable interval of slide may be, we have enough control tools are available. "Said Pan Jiancheng.
While growth has slowed, but the Chinese economy is still kept within a reasonable range. "To properly understand the drop in economic growth, strategies under the new normal on the normal state of mind. To lead the community to the new normal has reasonable expectations through steadfast reform and economic growth smooth shifting. "Said Pan Jiancheng.
Noteworthy is that as the economic situation changes, a "reasonable interval" is adjusted dynamically. "Reasonable upper and lower limits of the range of different periods and should be changed. The ' Twelve-Five ' during growth is reasonable to keep 7%-8%, ' Thirteen-Five ', I think 6.5%-7.5% is more reasonable. If international factors is large, full upper and lower limits can be translated 0.5%. "Said Pan Jiancheng.
"Reasonable range largely depends on where we can withstand the economic downturn. For example, tertiary industries are increasingly able to absorb labor, while labour supply is down, even lower economic growth, employment will not have a problem, this time a reasonable lower bound of the interval can be lower. "Liu yuanchun said.
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