2015, according to the report, according to the world tourism shopping in 2015, Chinese tourists to leave free 53.6% as the main purpose of shopping.
Circle of friends has recently been scouring the sea and tariffs to flood.
Said restoration of the tariff was protectionist and so on, I am afraid that slogans vague. To see the national tariff system, have obviously never world. Fly in a trip to Europe, customs dig three feet of spirit, will and Mona Lisa smile and tears like you are scratching their heads and impress. Please compose yourself, this is very common.
However, Haitao does not concern me, are scouring the sea "new deal" caused a large area are interested in response. One thing, could trigger a huge resonance, topped the headlines, should not be underestimated.
Hai Tao in the head, who in the end?
Echo behind, are the same people, which also took part in this matter, we are of the same party; compassion, that themselves do not necessarily participate in this thing, but have similar experiences, like the heart; empathy, although there is no similar experience, but can draw conclusions from the experiences and thinking, have similar views on this matter.
Hai Tao policy so valued, must have been scouring the sea it is booming, Hai Tao so prosperous, means everybody to go shopping abroad, and formed a considerable scale, and the scale will not be enough, that simply get through the channel, so that everyone in the country will be able to enjoy shopping in a foreign country "buy buy buy".
Imagine that the population of a State to a foreign country to strong consumption, what is this spirit?
Due to the country's fiscal revenue and employment levels remain beggar-thy-neighbour national problem, then consumption "flight" is definitely not a good spirit, and because of this phenomenon, if large-scale, long-term presence could mean the country's business faced a depression, economy shrank. In other words, do you think are cool now, but his money by making someone else go, jobs were taken away from me, you'll soon find that you have lost.
Such a simple truth, why Haitao so popular? And more and more fire? How to get to this point? This should only be the point.
Strong Yuan in the head
First, of course, is the continued strength of the Yuan.
2015, according to the report, according to the world tourism shopping in 2015, Chinese tourists to leave free 53.6% as the main purpose of shopping while each Chinese travelers on average will spend more than half of the travel expenses on shopping. Overseas shopping per capita spending of Chinese tourists 5830.
Why? Cost-effective Ah! Watch euro from 11:1 to less than 7, you say, France, and Italy, and Germany's world famous, does not mean simply discount it.
With the rapid development of China's economy, as well as the international status of the Yuan improved, China's people clearly feel the sense of the value of the Yuan's value. From Tokyo to New York, from Paris to Dubai, County Clerks became standard in order to adapt to the new global economic structure change of a number of emerging customer needs.
When a country's currency strong, while monetary growth also continued unabated, since M2 is still running at about 14%, there probably is not difficult to explain what this country wants to buy. After all, sometimes a State asset or they might have been able to buy other countries ' currencies.
However, this firm is not without a cost?
Pressure on the exchange rate at the other end
According to the most recent data reports generally showed good faith. Late March balance of the Central Bank's official foreign exchange reserves of US $ 3,212,580,000,000 per cent increase of 10.28 billion dollars, is the negative growth for four consecutive months.
However, this contribution is mainly denominated in the currency factors. The marvelling in dollars, currency diversification, some one-third is probably the euro, the yen-denominated assets, while the appreciation of the euro and Yen, respectively March and 0.1% resulting value gains around $ 30 billion. If so, the reserves are still falling. SDR-denominated reserves changes in or can be more objective, according to IMF calculations, in March, China's foreign exchange reserves to 2.28 trillion SDR, meter-37.8 billion SDR. Expected in March the Central Bank foreign exchange-100 billion yuan.
Of course, from now, the slowing pace of Fed rate hikes, the dollar index weakness, bringing emerging-market currencies and international cross-border capital flows. Stabilizing the domestic economy hit bottom for RMB exchange rate expectations of economic agents significantly improved.
However, the overall capital flow and pressure should not be underestimated in the currency market, and more importantly, under the current complicated international and domestic economic situation, monetary policy and exchange-rate cameras mobilize what best fits the growth pattern of the economy and the prospects for China's development? It is worth pondering.
Prices here
In fact, Haitao hot streak has gone beyond the past, we have an image of a single purchase of luxury goods. Haitao was hot, affecting the heart, because it's actually purchasing anything. In other words, we thought in the past, only because the luxury tax caused as a result of the price difference is huge overseas shopping "carry" theory does not explain how today's sea Amoy army phenomenon.
Now people, nothing panned. From the top of the world "name brand" with no family of the 30 's of the pores of the leather bag, the work will take care of every family may have intelligent people can sing and joke of rice cooker, toilet seat, the manpower can be a cure-all even more relief eye drops for Acne cream ulcer paste.
Someone also wrote the article, said, we all have! Xinhua News Agency read record national deficit
It's true, we all have.
Someone also said that this is because the domestic brand does not ring, lax inspection of product quality. Such as milk.
In fact, milk has its particularities. However, beyond the formula, think again.
If you are not sure, take a look at, and Chanel, Hermès, which isn't terrible, since Iphone Ipad, not terrible, terrible is that people buy brands, foreign public or even a low-end brand, buy items, are small no longer small things, buy price, very cheap.
That is, you buy, are everyday items, from hats to shoes, from lipstick to toothpaste.
Because, really cheap.
Currencies at the other end
March 2016 CPI growth of 2.3%, on the data with the previous flat is a very optimistic figures. Economic trends no deflation worries, is more appropriate than there is risk of inflation, allowing monetary policy to have more room.
Although high-frequency data show that overall pork prices in March than in February, but recorded CPI pork fell 1.3%. Of course, the Bureau has been given an explanation.
Well, if true. March hog 19.29 national average price per kilogram, up 57% over the last year. As a rule, this is not the climax. Climax is now is not reserved vegetables also rose. Famous Welsh onion gay more than 10 Yuan/kg, few become the treat of first class show off good helper, long beans, broccoli, cucumber and so on and so forth is not far behind. Great vegetarian feasts became new standard means.
It is said that it's all about seasonal periodicity.
Well, if true. Non-food in CPI factors also can not be ignored. Rebound in commodity prices brought more than CPI up slightly and bringing relief of PPI and the rebound of the PMI. Good news! However, the global economy still in the doldrums, United States admit its rate hikes must consider the negative impact of the World Economic Outlook is grim. Apparent lack of power correction in commodity prices. In particular, in the first quarter of 2016, occur a number of times against the phenomenon of price regulation in the past. For example, EIA inventory appears to peak reverse recovery and oil prices, and London copper stocks and prices to deviate from the conditions. Prove that the current traditional price factors have changed. So who affect prices now?
Or the answer is obvious. China more than 4.2 trillion yuan of new loans in the first quarter. High in the first quarter, in addition to commodities and food on the table, is there not a trading fiery paralyzed China's housing system to make it.
Purchasing power in the head, down the income gap in
Sounds like it's not bad to look at. The purchasing power of powerful people are drunk, cheap foreign goods, supply and demand are considerable satisfaction.
Currency, money many people money has no place to spend.
But this is not the case.
City 20% high income 20% income gap between low-income and urban by 3.6 to 5.5 times over the past 2000 years; internal 20% of the farmers higher incomes and 20% of the income of low-income earners is growing. In 2015, the high-income group and the low-income group in the 20% gap widened to 10.45 times times.
Gap between rich and poor widened.
When currency is not formed a relatively reasonable distribution in society, but forming a higher surplus of Hai Tao main, and income increasingly stretched pig farmers. More important is that the social wealth and not well within the market distribution and redistribution, Hai Tao consumer and does not become a source of pig farmers.
Currency a lot, but not in the real economy, there is no rational allocation.
Result, the overall Community consumption did not become more and more not only, but weaker.
Inflation in the first deflation in the first
08 years since the world economy and policy, it can probably be described: head of deflation, inflation to save; soon inflation, deflation and deflation does not walk, stagflation appeared.
The rapid rise of China's economic leverage in 08 after the outbreak of the global financial crisis. It is estimated that from 2008 to 2015, China's gross leverage ratio rose 105%. This is caused by extremely loose fiscal and monetary policies after the crisis.
But monetary policy too violent to fish until the.
Capacity to leverage is imperative.
But when China's economy is now in high speed to slow down of the growth process, and chronically depressed global morass, to avoid the appearance of a systemic crisis, they have to add leverage. Whether it is to stimulate the stock market, property market, like for enterprises and individuals to increase leverage.
According to huatai securities, estimates that by the end of 2015, China's real economy sector (excluding the financial sector) 's overall leverage ratio has reached 263.62%, of which non-financial enterprises sector leverage 166.3%. From the standard 90% of the Bank for international settlements, has gone far beyond.
Household leverage and China was 39.95%, although the numbers are fairly low, in the world's major powers are low, but takes into account household insurance protection, including education, health care, pensions, are still in a relatively weak position, I'm afraid people leverage the increased space is very limited.
March core rate of inflation, there is only 1.5%.
Currency pushing hands, only under brows, but our hearts. This time, how a deep sorrow.
PostScript
Haitao was a small incident, but reflects several years of monetary policy in China's economic changes and the pros and cons.
One thing on this side, a lot of things at the other end.
Scouring the sea, love is not a tax, who really cares? However, Hai Tao isn't behind the pig people? Not like pig people swaying in the monetary policy? Not the structural change in the development of China? Not tens of thousands of real grassroots, bottom of society?
A policy on this, thousands of ups and downs at the other end.
We not only care about one thing, whether it is large or small is the new fashionable cliché, one thing's events tend to be more notable, one thing the former future generations tend to be more worthy of attention. One thing is society in miniature, policy corner, raised the reasons which involves heavy, that's really need to worry about China's economic development and the need to address the problem.
Policy makers must in this, look at the other end; in the head, at the other end.
Hai Tao and pig man just two sides of the coin, the ends of the rope, are in fact the same common fate makes the result under the same situation.
Hai Tao in the head, pig people at the other end. There is no difference, it's like, I'm on this side, you are at the other end.
We are all people with nostalgia.
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